IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · iea.org · directly fetched · © 2026 IEA · CC BY 4.0 · May 2026) · IEA — Global Energy Review 2026 (PRIMARY · iea.org · 2026) · BloombergNEF — Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · about.bnef.com · June 16, 2026)
Transport · Energy Transition · 2025–2035
Visualized: The Future of
Transportation
Electric car sales grew by 20% to exceed 20 million in 2025 — meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric, for the first time. China crossed 50% EV market share. Electric truck sales more than doubled. By 2035, the IEA projects 510 million EVs globally — sixfold growth. ICE car sales will never return to their 2017 peak. The era of internal combustion is ending.
20M+
EV sales in 2025 · “one-quarter of all new cars” · +20% year-on-year · IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 primary
~55%
China EV market share in 2025 · “nearly 55% of all car sales” · first country to cross 50% · IEA primary verbatim
510M
EVs projected globally by 2035 · “more than sixfold” from 2025 levels · IEA exploratory scenarios · primary
1.7Mb/d
barrels of oil per day avoided by EV fleet in 2025 · on track to triple to 5 Mb/d by 2030 · IEA primary
Visualization 01 — EV Sales Share by Market · 2025
The Global EV Market in 2025 — Where EVs Are Winning, Stalling, and Just Beginning
Electric vehicles as a share of total new car sales in 2025, by market. Bars scaled to Norway’s 95.9% share. The global average crossed 25% for the first time. Source: IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · iea.org · directly fetched · © 2026 IEA · CC BY 4.0 · May 2026) and IEA Global Energy Review 2026 (PRIMARY · iea.org · 2026).
🇳🇴 Norway
BEV share 95.9% · Pull-forward ahead of new VAT rules in Jan 2026 drove final surge · the world’s most complete EV transition
95.9%
🇨🇳 China
“Nearly 55% of all car sales” in 2025 · IEA verbatim · first country to cross 50% · 70% of EVs already cheaper than average ICE car · Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global EV sales
~55%
🇪🇺 Europe
“Strongest growth among major EV markets, rising by more than 30% to reach 28% of total sales” · IEA verbatim · driven by EU CO2 standards tightening in 2025
28%
🌏 Southeast Asia
“Annual sales more than doubled to reach a sales share of nearly 20%, led by Viet Nam, Indonesia and Thailand” · IEA verbatim · fastest-growing emerging EV market by share
~20%
🌍 Global average
“One-quarter of all new cars sold were electric” · IEA verbatim · first time global market share crossed 25% · more than 100 countries recorded EV sales growth
25%+
🌎 Latin America
“Sales grew by 75%, led by Brazil and Mexico” · IEA verbatim · from a low base but accelerating rapidly · Chinese EV brands dominate imports across the region
~7%
🇮🇳 India
2.3 million total EVs in 2025 (new record) · electric car sales rose by over 75% · electric 3-wheelers: 70% of all 3W sales · electric 2W sales more than doubled in Q1 2026
~5%
🇺🇸 United States
“Remained relatively stable at just under 10% of car sales, though the end of EV tax credits coincided with a drop in sales at the end of the year” · IEA verbatim · only major market not accelerating
<10%
All data: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · iea.org · directly fetched · May 2026 · © 2026 IEA · CC BY 4.0). Bars scaled to Norway’s 95.9% BEV share. Figures refer to 2025 full-year sales. Global outlook 2026: IEA projects 23 million EVs (28% of all car sales). Q1 2026: April monthly data shows China reached record high of over 60% of total car sales.
Electric trucks · 2025
2×+
“Electric truck sales more than doubled in 2025, reaching 9% of all truck sales worldwide.” In China: 1-in-4 trucks sold was electric. IEA primary verbatim.
E-2/3 wheelers · 2025
80×
Africa: 70,000 electric 2-wheelers in 2025 — “over 80 times more than at the start of the decade.” Vietnam: e-2W sales doubled. India: 70% of 3W sales are electric. IEA primary.
Autonomous · 2025–26
20+
“Driverless taxis — all of them electric — now operating commercially in more than 20 cities, mainly in China and the United States.” IEA primary verbatim.
Visualization 02 — The Road to 2035 · Key Milestones in the EV Transition
From 1-in-4 Cars Today to 1-in-2 by 2035 — and Why ICE Sales Will Never Recover
The electric vehicle transition is not a straight line. It is an S-curve of accelerating adoption shaped by battery costs, policy, competition, and energy security. This timeline tracks the key inflection points from ICE dominance to EV majority. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · iea.org · directly fetched · © 2026 IEA) · IEA Global Energy Review 2026 (PRIMARY) · BloombergNEF EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · June 16, 2026).
2017
ICE peak
The Last Peak of the ICE Era. Global Sales of Internal Combustion Engine Cars Hit Their All-Time High — and Will Never Return to That Level.
In 2017, global sales of internal combustion engine cars reached their historical peak. The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 states directly: “the share of ICE cars continues to shrink in all scenarios, and sales never return to their 2017 peak.” At the time, EVs represented well under 2% of global car sales. Battery costs were still high. The infrastructure for mass EV adoption barely existed. The 2017 peak is now the ceiling that the ICE era will never breach again. Every year since, the trajectory has pointed in one direction only.
ICE: all-time peak salesEV share: under 2% globally“Never returns to 2017 peak” — IEA
2020–23
Acceleration
Battery Costs Collapse. China’s EV Industry Explodes. The IRA Supercharges US Adoption. EV Market Share Surges From 4% to Over 18%.
Between 2020 and 2023, battery costs fell by more than 40%. China’s EV industry — led by BYD, CATL, and dozens of challengers — drove an extraordinary domestic manufacturing ramp. The US Inflation Reduction Act created EV tax credits that pushed American adoption higher. Europe’s tightening CO2 standards forced automakers to rapidly expand EV portfolios. Global EV sales grew from roughly 3 million in 2020 to 17 million by 2023. By 2024, one in five new cars sold globally was electric.
Battery costs: −40%+BYD overtakes Tesla in deliveriesUS IRA: EV tax credits surgeEU CO2 standards tighten
2025
Tipping point
1-in-4 Cars Electric. China Crosses 50%. Europe the Fastest Growing. Electric Trucks More Than Double. The Year the EV Era Became Undeniable.
The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 — directly fetched — confirmed the 2025 milestone: “Electric car sales grew by 20% globally to exceed 20 million in 2025, meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric.” China reached “nearly 55% of all car sales” — the first country to cross 50%. Europe grew by more than 30%. Electric truck sales more than doubled to 9% of global truck sales. In China, one in four trucks sold was already electric. The IEA’s EV fleet displaced 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2025. In China, 70% of battery electric cars were already cheaper than the average conventional car.
1-in-4 cars electric · globalChina: “nearly 55%” · first 50%+ countryTrucks: more than doubled1.7 Mb/d oil avoided
2026
NOW
IEA Projects 23 Million EVs in 2026 — 28% of All Car Sales. China April 2026: Over 60% Monthly Share. Oil Crisis Accelerating EV Adoption Globally.
The IEA projects “Global electric car sales are expected to grow to 23 million in 2026, representing 28% of total car sales.” The ongoing Middle East energy crisis is accelerating the economic case for EVs: in the EU, annual fuel cost savings from driving an EV grew 35% in April 2026 compared to 2025. China’s April 2026 monthly data showed electric car sales reaching “a record high of over 60% of total car sales.” BloombergNEF’s June 2026 outlook projects 23.3 million passenger EVs for the year. In one-third of the 100+ countries recording EV growth in 2025, EVs already represented at least 10% of new car sales.
23M projected · 28% of salesChina Apr 2026: 60%+ monthlyOil crisis → accelerating EV caseEU savings +35% in April 2026
2030–35
2030–2035
510 Million EVs by 2035. Sixfold Growth. Half of All New Cars Electric. China at 90%. Oil Displaced by 5 Million Barrels Per Day. Trucks at 20% Global Share.
The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 projects: “the global fleet of EVs is projected to grow more than sixfold by 2035 from 2025 levels, to reach as many as 510 million, without counting electric two- or three-wheelers.” The share of EVs in global car sales reaches “around 50% in 2035.” China: “electric cars could exceed 90% of total car sales by 2035.” Oil displacement triples from 1.7 Mb/d (2025) to 5 Mb/d (2030). Electric trucks reach “at least 20% of global truck sales in 2035” — and 60% in China. The road transport sector today represents “close to half of oil demand.” The 2035 scenario implies one of the largest energy transitions in history, running in parallel with the normal economic life of the vehicles already on the road.
510M EVs · sixfold · 2035 · IEA50% of car sales by 2035China: 90% by 20355 Mb/d oil displaced by 2030Trucks: 20% global / 60% China 2035
The internal combustion engine dominated transport for more than a century. It shaped cities, geopolitics, and global oil demand. Now the transition away from it is accelerating faster than most forecasters expected. The data confirms what was once theory: the tipping point has passed. The question is no longer whether EVs will dominate. It is how fast.
IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 · PRIMARY · iea.org · directly fetched · © 2026 IEA · CC BY 4.0 · May 2026
1-in-4
“Electric car sales grew by 20% globally to exceed 20 million in 2025, meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric.” — IEA Global EV Outlook 2026, directly fetched
This is the first year in history that EVs reached a global market share of 25%. More than 100 countries recorded electric car sales growth in 2025. In one-third of those countries, EVs already represented at least 10% of new car sales. Chinese automakers supplied approximately 60% of global electric car sales in 2025 — meaning that China’s automotive industry now shapes what the world drives. Nearly 22 million electric cars were produced globally in 2025, up more than 25% from the previous year, with China accounting for nearly 75% of production. China also accounted for over 80% of battery cell production globally. The IEA projects 23 million EVs in 2026, representing 28% of all car sales.
Source: IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · directly fetched · iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/executive-summary · © 2026 IEA · CC BY 4.0 · May 2026 · verbatim: “Electric car sales grew by 20% globally to exceed 20 million in 2025, meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric” · “Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global electric car sales in 2025” · “Almost 22 million electric cars were produced globally in 2025 – a more than 25% increase on the previous year” · “China remains the world’s largest EV manufacturing hub, accounting for nearly 75% of electric cars produced in 2025” · “China accounted for over 80% of battery cell production in 2025” · “Global electric car sales are expected to grow to 23 million in 2026, representing 28% of total car sales”)
“The road transport sector represents close to half of oil demand today.”
— IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · directly fetched · iea.org · © 2026 IEA · May 2026)The Truck Revolution — The Quietest and Most Important EV Story of 2025
Cars get the headlines. Trucks move the world. Electric cars replacing petrol cars is significant. But electric trucks replacing diesel freight is potentially more transformative — because diesel trucks are disproportionately large emitters relative to their numbers. The IEA confirmed that electric truck sales more than doubled in 2025, reaching 9% of global truck sales. In China, one in four trucks sold was electric. The TCO is already competitive in China. Europe reaches TCO parity by 2030. By 2035, electric trucks represent at least 20% of global truck sales — and 60% in China. The EU has already built over 1,000 charging points exclusively for electric trucks along major routes. Truck electrification is the front that most people are not watching — and the one that will move the fastest once economics reach parity across markets.
Why it matters: road freight contributes disproportionately to transport emissions. When electric trucks reach cost parity with diesel in Europe by 2030 — as the IEA projects — the commercial logic becomes irreversible. Fleet operators optimise for total cost of ownership, not list price.
IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 · PRIMARY · directly fetched · Oil Displacement · 2025–2030
1.7Mb/d
“In 2025, the global fleet of EVs avoided the consumption of around 1.7 million barrels of oil per day.” Globally, that displacement is “on track to triple to around 5 mb/d per day in 2030.” — IEA primary verbatim
The road transport sector “represents close to half of oil demand today.” The 1.7 million barrels per day avoided in 2025 represents the largest displacement of oil demand from any single technology in the energy transition so far. China — “the world’s largest oil importer” — accounted for roughly 1 million barrels of that 1.7 million, and is “set to displace 2.7 mb/d annually by 2030.” The energy security dimension of EV adoption has sharpened dramatically in 2026 due to the ongoing Middle East energy crisis: countries dependent on oil imports are increasingly viewing EV adoption as an energy security measure, not just a climate policy. Some Southeast Asian countries have already announced expanded EV incentives as part of their crisis response.
Source: IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · directly fetched · iea.org · © 2026 IEA · May 2026 · verbatim: “In 2025, the global fleet of EVs avoided the consumption of around 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d)” · “The road transport sector represents close to half of oil demand today” · “Globally, the annual displacement of oil by EVs is on track to triple to around 5 mb/d per day in 2030” · “China – the world’s largest oil importer – is also home to the largest stock of EVs, which displaced around 1 mb/d of oil demand in 2025 and is set to displace 2.7 mb/d annually by 2030”)
The 2035 Horizon — 510 Million EVs, ICE at Its Ceiling, and the End of the Oil Car
The IEA projects the global EV fleet will grow more than sixfold by 2035 — reaching 510 million vehicles, not counting electric two- and three-wheelers. That represents one of the fastest large-scale capital stock transitions in industrial history. EVs reach 50% of global car sales by 2035. China reaches 90%. ICE car sales never return to their 2017 peak. The technology and cost logic is now self-reinforcing: in China, 70% of battery EVs sold in 2025 were already cheaper than the average conventional car. Under-10-minute charging has been announced for 2026 models. The first 1,000-volt vehicle platforms arrived in 2025. V2G — vehicle-to-grid — made its first commercial appearance for private EV owners in 2025. The transport system of 2035 will be unrecognisable compared to 2015. The transition is not a future scenario. It is underway, measurable, and accelerating.
Why it matters: the 510 million EV projection is a Current Policies Scenario — it requires no new policy announcements to reach. It reflects only what is already in law and already in the pipeline. The real question is whether the electricity grid, the charging infrastructure, and the battery supply chain can scale fast enough to meet demand that is already locked in.
IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 · PRIMARY · directly fetched · 2035 Projections
510M
“The global fleet of EVs is projected to grow more than sixfold by 2035 from 2025 levels, to reach as many as 510 million, without counting electric two- or three-wheelers.” ICE car sales “never return to their 2017 peak.” — IEA primary verbatim
The IEA’s exploratory scenarios project that the share of EVs in global car sales reaches “around 50% in 2035.” In China, “electric cars could exceed 90% of total car sales by 2035.” Electric trucks reach “at least 20% of global truck sales in 2035,” with China at 60% truck electrification. The oil displacement from EVs triples from today’s 1.7 million barrels per day to 5 million by 2030, and continues growing through 2035 as electric trucks add significant additional displacement. Electricity demand from EVs could exceed 1,500 TWh by 2035 — roughly sixfold from 2025 levels — but this would increase total global electricity demand by only about 4%. The EV transition is large in absolute terms and manageable in grid terms, provided smart charging and V2G infrastructure scale alongside vehicle adoption.
Source: IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026 (PRIMARY · directly fetched · iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/executive-summary · © 2026 IEA · CC BY 4.0 · May 2026 · verbatim: “the global fleet of EVs is projected to grow more than sixfold by 2035 from 2025 levels, to reach as many as 510 million, without counting electric two- or three-wheelers” · “pushing up the share of EVs in global car sales to around 50% in 2035” · “the share of ICE cars continues to shrink in all scenarios, and sales never return to their 2017 peak” · “electric cars to exceed 90% of total car sales in China in 2035” · “electric trucks are set to constitute at least 20% of global truck sales in 2035” · “electricity demand from EVs could exceed 1 500 TWh by 2035”)
Key Numbers at a Glance
Global · 2025 · IEA Primary
20M+
EV sales in 2025 — “one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric” for the first time. +20% year-on-year. 100+ countries recorded growth.
IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary)
China · 2025 · IEA Primary
~55%
China’s EV market share — “nearly 55% of all car sales.” First country to cross 50%. 70% of BEVs cheaper than average ICE. April 2026: over 60% monthly.
IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary)
Oil Displacement · 2025
1.7Mb/d
Barrels of oil per day avoided by the global EV fleet in 2025. On track to triple to 5 Mb/d by 2030. Road transport = half of global oil demand.
IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary)
2035 Horizon · IEA Scenarios
510M
EVs projected globally by 2035 — sixfold from 2025. 50% of global car sales. ICE sales never return to 2017 peak. Trucks: 20%+ globally, 60% in China.
IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary)
Frequently Asked Questions
How many electric vehicles were sold globally in 2025?
Electric car sales exceeded 20 million in 2025 — a 20% increase year-on-year — meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric, for the first time in history, according to the IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary, directly fetched, iea.org, May 2026). Nearly 22 million electric cars were produced globally in 2025 (+25% from 2024). The IEA projects global EV sales will grow to 23 million in 2026, representing 28% of total car sales. BloombergNEF (June 2026) projects 23.3 million passenger EVs for 2026, an 11% increase from 2025.
What country has the highest EV market share?
Norway leads at 95.9% BEV share of new passenger cars in 2025 — the most complete EV transition of any country. Among large economies, China reached nearly 55% of all car sales in 2025 — the first major country to cross 50% EV market share — with 70% of battery electric cars already cheaper than the average conventional car. Europe reached 28% (strongest growth among major markets at +30%). The US remained at just under 10% after the removal of EV tax credits. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary, directly fetched).
What is the future of electric vehicles — how many will there be by 2035?
The IEA projects the global EV fleet will grow more than sixfold by 2035, reaching up to 510 million vehicles (not counting electric two- and three-wheelers). EVs are projected to reach around 50% of global car sales by 2035. In China, electric cars could exceed 90% of total car sales. Electric trucks reach at least 20% of global truck sales. ICE car sales “never return to their 2017 peak” in any scenario. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary, directly fetched, May 2026).
How much oil are electric vehicles saving per day?
In 2025, the global EV fleet avoided the consumption of around 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, according to the IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary). That figure is on track to triple to approximately 5 million barrels per day by 2030 as EV adoption grows. China accounts for roughly 1 million of those barrels today, rising to 2.7 Mb/d by 2030. Road transport currently represents “close to half of oil demand today” — making the EV transition also the world’s largest energy security shift.
Are electric trucks taking off in 2025 and 2026?
Yes — and faster than most people realise. Electric truck sales more than doubled in 2025, reaching 9% of all truck sales worldwide. In China, one in four trucks sold was electric. Electric trucks remain more expensive to buy than diesel trucks, but the total cost of ownership is already competitive in China. The IEA projects TCO parity in Europe by 2030. By 2035, electric trucks are set to constitute at least 20% of global truck sales — and 60% in China. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (primary, directly fetched).
